Cat. 4 Hurricane Barbara Strengthens in the Eastern Pacific
Hurricane Barbara has strengthened once again.
At a Glance
Hurricane Barbara rapidly strengthened into a major hurricane Tuesday morning.Some additional intensification is possible.Barbara is expected to begin to weaken by Wednesday.It may pass near Hawaii next week as a much weaker system.
Hurricane Barbara rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane in the eastern Pacific early Tuesday.
Barbara became a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, after strengthening from a tropical storm with 70-mph winds Monday morning to a hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph Tuesday.
It is expected to remain a major hurricane into Wednesday as it tracks toward the west-northwest through the Eastern Pacific, more than 1,100 miles from Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Conditions will remain favorable for some additional strengthening through Tuesday night. Vertical wind shear will remain low and water temperatures are warm, helping to fuel intensification.
Barbara is expected to turn toward the northwest by late-week, and its forward speed will slow down.
Its northwestward track will take it over cooler water, which will help to weaken this system. Additionally, wind shear is anticipated to increase, providing a more hostile environment for the tropical cyclone to maintain its strength.
As a result, faster weakening is likely this weekend, and Barbara could lose its tropical characteristics by early next week.
There is a chance Barbara will track near Hawaii next week, although it will have weakened greatly. It could be nothing more than a remnant low at that point.
Higher surf from Barbara might arrive along east-facing shores of the Big Island and possibly Maui as early as Saturday morning, according to the National Weather Service.
(MORE: Hurricane Season in July)
NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center, which includes the area around Hawaii, expects an above-average hurricane season this year. An average year yields four or five tropical cyclones in the central Pacific Ocean Basin, with most of those systems coming from the eastern Pacific.
The reason for a more active hurricane season than usual is the expectation that El Niño will continue into the fall and ocean temperatures in the main hurricane formation region will likely remain warmer than average this season. Vertical wind shear is also predicted to be weaker than average.
In an El Niño year, warmer water can push farther north, increasing the chance of tropical cyclones passing near Hawaii, and vertical wind shear tends to decrease in the tropical Central Pacific.
Recent Hawaii Hurricanes
Hawaii has seen a number of impacts and close calls from tropical cyclones over the past five years.
Last year, four storms tracked near Hawaii. Olivia made landfall on Maui as a tropical storm on Sept. 13 and caused flooding and some tree damage.
Hurricane Lane rapidly fell apart as it approached Hawaii in August, but it brought several feet of rain in some higher elevations of Hawaii. This included one total of over 50 inches on the Big Island, setting a new tropical cyclone rainfall record for Hawaii.
Lane was the third-wettest tropical cyclone in U.S. history.
Hurricanes Hector and Norman also passed close to Hawaii and brought high surf and dangerous swells.
In 2016, Lester passed well north of the Hawaiian Islands as a hurricane but did bring some minor flooding, and Darby made landfall on the Big Island as a tropical storm. Iselle made landfall on the Big Island as a tropical storm in 2014, which triggered flooding and more than $150 million in damage, along with one death.
Tropical cyclones typically weaken as they approach Hawaii due to cooler sea-surface temperatures, drier air and an increase in wind shear. However, as Hurricane Inikidemonstrated in 1992, that is not always the case.